Thoughts on Final Three

Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Grant » Sun Apr 13, 2014 4:34:18 pm

I don't think you made their plans fail by flipping. I just think Sophie wasn't as interested in working with them as PB was, or they weren't as willing to work with Sophie as they were PB and when he went out, that went out the window. Steph and I knew they both voted Ralph that vote. They weren't trying to flip as in changing sides, they were trying to gain new allies to position ourselves/themselves for a push a few votes later but either Sophie wasn't interested in them or they weren't interested in her - I don't know. It was a good plan in theory, just not in execution. Had Sophie gone home and PB stayed (yes, I know she had immunity that vote but had she gone home), their plan might've worked better. It also might not've.

Also if you think they look pretty eh, this is what happens when the big threats to win go early post-merge :)
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Sophie » Sun Apr 13, 2014 4:35:27 pm

Yeah but the thing is Ashley, there is no way to say that Stephanie would 100% be sitting there and that luck didn't affect her like it did the other guys. The truth of the matter is that luck has affected all of us in getting where we were, whether it helped or hurt us. You may have gotten out at 6th place had it not been for luck Ash, and I may have gotten out much later had I not double posted or Cochran not had a very crappy internet connection in the counting challenge. Luck just has affected every single person here, and so I am only going on the games they played and not a mistake that Whitney made. If I had been in the final four, do you really think that I would have let her win that challenge? I mean it's hard to calculate what luck would have done if it wasn't here, and so that's why I can't look at Steph as being "100%" in the final three.
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Grant » Sun Apr 13, 2014 4:38:55 pm

If you're going to be like that, I think it was lucky every time Whitney voted so you were all pretty lucky getting me out and getting yourself into that position in the game in the first place ;)
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Ashley » Sun Apr 13, 2014 4:47:57 pm

The thing with luck is that is that it wasn't a fate thing. It was a "if she'd bothered to vote, the entire game would look different" thing. Y'know? And honestly, you aren't giving Steph enough credit for that counting challenge. She was fucking fast - I don't think anyone could've beaten her. She averaged over 800 posts an hour for nearly 11 hours straight and only stopped because I told her to. She was winning it no matter what.

If Whitney had voted (Whitney I'm not bitching about you here, I'm just talking about the what-if when discussing the F3 we have - I promise no hard feelings lol) David would be GONE. We'd be 4/2 at final 6. Steph had the idol and Steph won that immunity. So we probably would've lose Whitney or Julie there. That's 3-2 in our favor. Then Steph won that next immunity at well. Nobody had the idol Mike would have gone home. F4 would be Me, You, Steph + Whit/Julie. I'm just being real here, Steph likely would've won immunity regardless. And I won't lie if that happened I would've flipped on you no questions asked. I would've told Julie or Whitney to flip on you with me and guarantee F3. It would have 100% happened and I'm pretty confident they would've voted with me if I'd asked them to. The worst that could happen is force a tie between the two of us and one of us gets to F3.

If Steph lost....well NAMA (Julie is Nama <3 as well as Whit) F3 BABY.

Do you get what I mean?

It's just beyond weird seeing this F3. It's like a bloody potluck F3. How do you choose between floaters, I mean jesus christ.
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Ashley » Sun Apr 13, 2014 4:48:46 pm

Grant wrote:If you're going to be like that, I think it was lucky every time Whitney voted so you were all pretty lucky getting me out and getting yourself into that position in the game in the first place ;)


We only went ahead with the vote for you because both Whitney and Julie logged on that night icon_lol If they hadn't we would've dropped it and waited another day.
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Ashley » Sun Apr 13, 2014 4:50:53 pm

I'm going to add that whole "potluck F3" thing to my jury speech hahahaha <3
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Sophie » Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:19:20 pm

Grant wrote:If you're going to be like that, I think it was lucky every time Whitney voted so you were all pretty lucky getting me out and getting yourself into that position in the game in the first place ;)


"If you're going to be like that"

Um what? I'm stating why luck has played a part in all of our games. It wasn't luck that got you out, it was four votes. Whitney was part of the game, and she placed a vote at every other tribal council. That wasn't luck at all, and her not showing up wasn't unlucky either.
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Sophie » Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:21:03 pm

Ashley wrote:The thing with luck is that is that it wasn't a fate thing. It was a "if she'd bothered to vote, the entire game would look different" thing. Y'know? And honestly, you aren't giving Steph enough credit for that counting challenge. She was fucking fast - I don't think anyone could've beaten her. She averaged over 800 posts an hour for nearly 11 hours straight and only stopped because I told her to. She was winning it no matter what.

If Whitney had voted (Whitney I'm not bitching about you here, I'm just talking about the what-if when discussing the F3 we have - I promise no hard feelings lol) David would be GONE. We'd be 4/2 at final 6. Steph had the idol and Steph won that immunity. So we probably would've lose Whitney or Julie there. That's 3-2 in our favor. Then Steph won that next immunity at well. Nobody had the idol Mike would have gone home. F4 would be Me, You, Steph + Whit/Julie. I'm just being real here, Steph likely would've won immunity regardless. And I won't lie if that happened I would've flipped on you no questions asked. I would've told Julie or Whitney to flip on you with me and guarantee F3. It would have 100% happened and I'm pretty confident they would've voted with me if I'd asked them to. The worst that could happen is force a tie between the two of us and one of us gets to F3.

If Steph lost....well NAMA (Julie is Nama <3 as well as Whit) F3 BABY.

Do you get what I mean?

It's just beyond weird seeing this F3. It's like a bloody potluck F3. How do you choose between floaters, I mean jesus christ.


No I definitely understand what you're saying, but there are many other instances that could have eliminated Stephanie's chance at getting an idol or at winning an immunity challenge. Luck is ALWAYS involved in games, it's just that it isn't as apparent in some instances. Had Whitney showed up, maybe Steph still would be there but I highly doubt it. She got luck by finding those two idols and being able to research quickly, but that isn't knocking her idol finds. It's great to find any idol, let alone two like she did.
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Grant » Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:22:32 pm

I should've quoted Ashley :P When I started typing, yours hadn't shown up yet.

It was just a joke anyway, hence the ;)
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Ashley » Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:38:57 pm

ughhh who to vote for!?!?!?

:P

I'm gonna call my speech "Potluck Final 3" just to be a cow <3
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Sophie » Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:44:18 pm

To be honest, I'm excited going in to this final three. I will be here and will not vote (besides my pre-vote I already placed that could go null) until I sit through that entire Final Tribal Council. I will read every word that they write, and will hold them accountable for it all. It's thrilling!
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Kristina » Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:46:05 pm

what i know:

david
talked to me the first three days and then pretty much went away after that. he would only message me if it was in his best interest, if he could gain something out of it. i literally didn't hear from david from the vote when rick went home pre-merge all the way till after grant got blindsided and all of a sudden he wanted to stick together and draw rocks...which he then proceeded to not do as he flipped and i got booted. which i actually don't hold against him. david's game reminds me a lot of cesternino's game from the amazon. alliances were fairly fluid to him.he moved whenever it was convenient. his willingness to flip on anyone and everyone let him hop back and forth to the end. i made a thread right after julie drew rocks and got out about it. i know ash and soph, you guys were hating on him pretty hard that tribal, but it was that same tribal i really started to respect his game.

mike
like grant said, mike was in trouble immediately. i was voted least trusted from the beginning. he wasn't in the game for at least the full first day, if not longer. i tried talking to him immediately because i figured he'd be desperate to talk to anyone. we were pretty close, but never about the game. we messaged pretty much every day, but it was always about music or movies. great social play. i think that's what he did to get ovambo to like him again and proceeded to play a solid under the radar through the game. using people like grant and myself and even david as shields along the way. as much as his statement to you at the final challenge pisses you off ash, i think that the fact that he was able to put himself into that kind of position to say something like that and pull a hatch at the final challenge is commendable. he might've worded it wrong, but if he played that solid of an under the radar game with decent to great social interaction and it took till f4 for you to not like him? there's something there. he's the long shot for me at this point, but if he can talk his game up well, i could still see myself working with him.

steph
for me, this is the front runner, because of how much she played grant and me. we've already discussed this, but we both thought, 100%, that she was each of our partner in crime. i even came to trust and work with steph more than ralph who was my night 1 ally i was telling everything. so much so that i was trying to shoehorn steph into every alliance i would make later in the game with ash and soph, even to my own detriment. she was able to get grant and i to love her all while playing under the radar enough from nama to not be a huge target immediately post-merge like the two of us were. and by the time she was a target, she became a huge badass. pre-merge she was a challenge beast, right up there with grant. at the merge she slowed down, and i'm starting to think it was intentional. almost like a skillset hibernation. and when she started to become vulnerable again she started finding idols and beasting challenges.

i think all three actually played great games, some just moreso than others. i have a good idea where i'm leaning, but their words at FTC can still change everything.
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Ashley » Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:10:36 pm

I was trying to get rid of Mike for ages :/ He kept winning immunity and then Whitney didn't vote and it was game over. He and David both knew that Stephanie and I weren't going to take eachother to FTC - that's why they were able to sit out. I don't think taking solace in your UTR gameplay is all the commendable at all.

He wouldn't even be there if not for the no-vote. I just don't see how people think he played so well when he is literally there by fluke, not because he had special social game.

It blows me away. It really does. You guys know them better from pre-merge, obviously - but pre-merge Ovambo is pretty useless because none of it was ever tested. You all sat pretty. Anything they did pre-merge is worth fuck all in my opinion because of that.
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Sophie » Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:14:48 pm

I think Mike is a goat, and the chance of him getting my vote is slim to none. He is going to go in to this finale and pitch a "scooby-doo" and I won't tolerate that. He has been a goat for Stephanie, and there is a very little chance of me ever voting for him even if he does pitch a UTR strategy.
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Ashley » Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:21:32 pm

Exactly - all of the positive stuff I've heard about Mike is plans he made that never came to fruition or "he managed to survive!"

well fucking good for him? idk fuck. he didn't DO anything.

I'm not saying he was shit, but people should at least recognise that some serious, SERIOUS luck was involved in them getting past F7 and F6 respectively.
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Grant » Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:39:27 pm

Kristina wrote:what i know:

david
talked to me the first three days and then pretty much went away after that. he would only message me if it was in his best interest, if he could gain something out of it. i literally didn't hear from david from the vote when rick went home pre-merge all the way till after grant got blindsided and all of a sudden he wanted to stick together and draw rocks...which he then proceeded to not do as he flipped and i got booted. which i actually don't hold against him. david's game reminds me a lot of cesternino's game from the amazon. alliances were fairly fluid to him.he moved whenever it was convenient. his willingness to flip on anyone and everyone let him hop back and forth to the end. i made a thread right after julie drew rocks and got out about it. i know ash and soph, you guys were hating on him pretty hard that tribal, but it was that same tribal i really started to respect his game.

mike
like grant said, mike was in trouble immediately. i was voted least trusted from the beginning. he wasn't in the game for at least the full first day, if not longer. i tried talking to him immediately because i figured he'd be desperate to talk to anyone. we were pretty close, but never about the game. we messaged pretty much every day, but it was always about music or movies. great social play. i think that's what he did to get ovambo to like him again and proceeded to play a solid under the radar through the game. using people like grant and myself and even david as shields along the way. as much as his statement to you at the final challenge pisses you off ash, i think that the fact that he was able to put himself into that kind of position to say something like that and pull a hatch at the final challenge is commendable. he might've worded it wrong, but if he played that solid of an under the radar game with decent to great social interaction and it took till f4 for you to not like him? there's something there. he's the long shot for me at this point, but if he can talk his game up well, i could still see myself working with him.

steph
for me, this is the front runner, because of how much she played grant and me. we've already discussed this, but we both thought, 100%, that she was each of our partner in crime. i even came to trust and work with steph more than ralph who was my night 1 ally i was telling everything. so much so that i was trying to shoehorn steph into every alliance i would make later in the game with ash and soph, even to my own detriment. she was able to get grant and i to love her all while playing under the radar enough from nama to not be a huge target immediately post-merge like the two of us were. and by the time she was a target, she became a huge badass. pre-merge she was a challenge beast, right up there with grant. at the merge she slowed down, and i'm starting to think it was intentional. almost like a skillset hibernation. and when she started to become vulnerable again she started finding idols and beasting challenges.

i think all three actually played great games, some just moreso than others. i have a good idea where i'm leaning, but their words at FTC can still change everything.


I agree with everything you said. I think Mike is being hugely underrated in this thread alone but it is hard for me to find the words to describe him or his gameplay. It's just not easy for me to do, which in and of itself might be to Mike's detriment. I typed a different thing up a few days prior on Ralph's but it seemed that everything I was crediting under Mike's name seemed like I was bragging about myself or what I was doing. He'll probably have a "scooby doo" finale but honestly I don't think it is that bad to do that, so long as what he says matches up relatively well to what we've been saying, which I suspect it will.

For what it's worth, I thought Steph was with me 100% but I always thought she would be more loyal to you, K, than she was to me and I think I mentioned that somewhere in Ponderosa already and I mentioned it quite a few times in my confessionals. The point remains though she was one of my better allies and I do agree that I think she kind of stopped trying in immunities to let me try hard in immunities because she knew I was capable and she knew I was willing, and it wouldn't be the end of the world if a Nama won, as there were plenty other options. All in the meanwhile, NOBODY is thinking about her. I swear I thought she was going to be a huge threat pre-merge and I wrote that all over my confessionals. She proved how good she was when she actually needed immunities and didn't have me and you fighting for them as well.

I agree with David. He'd always talked to me so I'm surprised to see he and Mike didn't talk to other people. I guess they put a lot of their trust in me to kind of navigate for them, which is a strategy I guess. I think a lot of what all three but in particular the two boys did was use me to get info so they could make plans accordingly. I filled them in on almost everything relevant to them, and I also withheld a lot of info from them, incl. the girls + me alliance that in my confessional I knew wasn't legit, ugh, retrospect. I actually even compared myself to Cesternino in my confessional and some other high-prowess Survivors and finishing 9th I feel like a bonehead doing so. But, back to David, yeah I agree that the voting out Kristina was when I noticed David's not just playing an alliance game, it made sense for vote her out. But at the same time, I don't think he was fluid with alliances, I think he just played emotionally which is not my type of game, as I'm sure everyone is aware (excl. when Ralph went home), nor is it a Cesternino game. His emotions almost ruined the Cochran vote, his emotions /almost/ saved us in the vote that sent me home and his emotions caused him to vote Ashley in the FTC. I think he was pandering for jury votes by voting for Ashley, David is the shrewd type of game player, there is usually intention to whatever he does (as you say, he only talked to you when he needed something). I still find that interesting because I talked to him a lot and figured he was the type to have his hand in a lot of different cookie jars like me, but I guess that wasn't the case.

All in all I think all 3 deserve it. I think dismissing Mike's game as not doing anything is kind of silly. It is not always in everyone's best interest to make a move, sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't.

Luck is the biggest component of everyone's game. If you want to keep bringing luck up, luck put me with you, Ashley, on the Nama tribe. If it doesn't, you and I don't become friends and you are likely a target along with Cochran for the first/second post-merge boot. No one on our side would've trusted you (as much) without me saying "post-merge, if Ashley makes it, I think we gotta get her on our side" and Kristina/Ralph can back me up on everything I said and my recommendations for bringing you in. So, I mean, calling them lucky when not realizing how lucky YOU were is kind of silly. You get anyone other than me or Kristina sent over to Nama and I don't think they even bother, they just come right back to us. Luck is a huge huge huge part of this game. I think dismissing someone getting to the end as lucky when luck is a huge part of the game kind of diminishes your cred, IMO.
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Sophie » Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:46:39 pm

Luck is the biggest component of everyone's game. If you want to keep bringing luck up, luck put me with you, Ashley, on the Nama tribe. If it doesn't, you and I don't become friends and you are likely a target along with Cochran for the first/second post-merge boot. No one on our side would've trusted you (as much) without me saying "post-merge, if Ashley makes it, I think we gotta get her on our side" and Kristina/Ralph can back me up on everything I said and my recommendations for bringing you in. So, I mean, calling them lucky when not realizing how lucky YOU were is kind of silly. You get anyone other than me or Kristina sent over to Nama and I don't think they even bother, they just come right back to us. Luck is a huge huge huge part of this game. I think dismissing someone getting to the end as lucky when luck is a huge part of the game kind of diminishes your cred, IMO.



I definitely agree with this surprisingly. Everyone of us got to our places somehow by luck, and so I sort of have to rule that out.
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Ashley » Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:51:20 pm

Grant the luck we are talking about is very different. There's luck of the draw in survivor, and then there's "someone didn't vote and it screwed the whole alliance" luck.

I'm not saying any of them are crap players, I just think you guys are giving them all this credit for something that ultimately came down to Whitney losing track of time :P If she hadn't, they'd be out. simple as that.

Of course, she did, so here we are. I never said they weren't deserving, just that I don't agree with pretending they had amazing games and that's what got them into F3 like you guys are suggesting.

It's silly saying "wahh luck" because if I was really going to do that, I'd be bitching about 'luck' on the purple rock draw, or 'luck' of something else totally out of anyone's control. The 'luck' I refer to is - you got lucky because someone didn't vote. Not 'the fates smiled upon you tody so you got lucky fuck you you're undeserving'.

I can only look at Mike, Steph and David as I personally interacted with them. I feel that pre-merge Ovambo is a waste of time discussing because you never implemented the plans you made there. who gives a shit about plans that never came to fruition? This isn't Stranded Potential. This is Stranded. As I knew their play, none of them really DID anything other than go to rocks - which everyone but David did - and find idols. That's not dismissing doing either of those things - but it's not something that's worthy of tons of praise.
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Sophie » Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:53:52 pm

I think that luck also affected us and helped us plenty of other times though Ashley, and so at this point I can't even say with certainty that Mike would have gone if Semhar had shown up to the last team challenge. If she had shown up, Whitney would have been voted out and Semhar may not have ever teamed up with us since she was much more intelligent. That would have put us out even earlier since she may not have bit on the girls alliance thing, and so that's another thing that could correlate and how luck has helped us. So what if Whitney didn't vote, Mike may not still be here but neither would Stephanie or David. We have to nullify luck as a factor since it affects all three of them equally in this instance.
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Re: Thoughts on Final Three

Postby Grant » Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:54:18 pm

That example isn't even the most obvious - if Ashley is put on Ovambo and Rick is put on Nama, and I am the only one to switch tribes, Ashley goes home when I switch back, 95% sure of it. It just so happened that Ashley was put into a spot where she had some room to breath and she had some ears that were willing to listen. While a lot of that is skill, a lot of that is also luck.

As Sophie said, we all were at the benefit of or the detriment of luck at almost every turn of the game. The further you got, the more benefit you got from luck. Again, just my IMO.
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