Jut some chat

[Ralph]

We have all the talk on the Welcome _______! pages so I thought I might as well make this.

Who do you think will be joining our Losing crew on sunday?

[Cochran]

We have all the talk on the Welcome _______! pages so I thought I might as well make this.

Who do you think will be joining our Losing crew on sunday?

I think Mikes gonna be here tonight.

[Grant]

I agree, or David if they think Mike might have the idol.

[Cochran]

They could switch to Steph if they don't know where the idol is.. because I'm pretty sure they don't have the numbers to split a vote yet right?

[Grant]

Right. It's 4-3 I think.

I think it would be smart for Julie to flip on Ashley/Sophie/Whitney and vote one of them out. She can beat Mike/David/Steph with a move like that, but staying put she definitely can't beat Ashley or Sophie. If she votes out one of Mike/David/Steph I feel like it will be boring and the ending of the game will be rather lackluster.

[Grant]

Also didn't Sophie say she was going to give up her immunity to Julie or whoever last tribal? Wouldn't it be great if she gave it up and they voted her out? That's what I'm hoping for tonight :)

[Cochran]

i'm not really sure that would put her ahead of all three of them... But it would definitely give her a hell of a lot more to say in her jury speech if she makes it there.

But yeah if she stays the same then the ends going to suck... Unless mike/Dave go on an immunity run

[Cochran]

WELL SHIT Just when I thought I knew what was gonna happen...

But Rocks is a hell of a lot more eventful than anything else so I'm happy :D

Hopefully more rocks next tribal??

[Grant]

Let's see, if it goes 3-3 again next week, two people will be immune due to being voted for, one will have immunity and one might have the idol.

If one side can monopolize immunity, there's no point of rocks. Let's say Mike wins immunity and Steph picks up the HII, either they vote Steph or David. If they vote Steph, they lost and whoever Mike/Steph/David voted for goes home (let's say Ashley). If they are correct in voting David, David is immune from rocks, so Ashley will have to go, unless one of Sophie/Julie sacrifices themselves for Ashley. It's what Sophie has been preaching all along (except when she didn't win immunity), let's see if she'll fall on the sword for Ashley or Julie.

EXCITING.

If the idol and immunity are on Ashley and Sophie's side, then blah, boring.

[Grant]

except when she DID win immunity**

[Cochran]

Let's see, if it goes 3-3 again next week, two people will be immune due to being voted for, one will have immunity and one might have the idol.

If one side can monopolize immunity, there's no point of rocks. Let's say Mike wins immunity and Steph picks up the HII, either they vote Steph or David. If they vote Steph, they lost and whoever Mike/Steph/David voted for goes home (let's say Ashley). If they are correct in voting David, David is immune from rocks, so Ashley will have to go, unless one of Sophie/Julie sacrifices themselves for Ashley. It's what Sophie has been preaching all along (except when she didn't win immunity), let's see if she'll fall on the sword for Ashley or Julie.

EXCITING.

If the idol and immunity are on Ashley and Sophie's side, then blah, boring.

To be honest I'd rather hit rocks and see someone flip than see a side monopolize the immunity...

It's final 6 so it wouldn't really be a bad idea.

Lets say Julie flips back and they vote off sophie first and then ashley. If it's dave steph and Mike julie can argue that she won't win and get herself into the final three by having them get rid of a threat.

I'm sure if Dave or Steph does that it would go the same way and sophie or ashley will turn on eachother

Not saying they definitely would but idk they could.

[Grant]

That's actually really interesting:

If Mike/David/Steph gets immunity, it doesn't matter who gets HII, as long as it is played on Mike/David/Steph. Having two people safe = having three people safe, that's very interesting. All three will be safe and it will be up to whoever they do not vote for to decide who goes home - will they turn on (let's say Ashley) and vote her out, or will Sophie/Julie be willing to go 50/50 to rocks.

If Ashley/Sophie/Julie gets immunity, it doesn't matter who gets HII, as long as it gets played on Ashley/Sophie/Julie. All three will be safe. I think whoever they voted for will go home, no doubt. Both of the people who are not voted for will flip.

If immunity is on one side and the HII (played on the wrong person) is on the other, it's 1 to 1. Will someone be willing to take a 50/50 chance? That'd be crazy! It'd be even more hilarious if they BOTH flipped and went to rocks anyway.

This has the potential to throw some real fireworks. I'm excited!

[Cochran]

If Ashley/Sophie/Julie gets immunity, it doesn't matter who gets HII, as long as it gets played on Ashley/Sophie/Julie. All three will be safe. I think whoever they voted for will go home, no doubt. Both of the people who are not voted for will flip.

Yeah i'm pretty pumped also... definitely not what I thought was gonna happen. And I honestly feel like anyone left here can win this if they get to the end with the right people...

Some obviously are easier than others but I don't think anyone is definitely a goat being dragged to the end anymore.

And lol are you sure the both of them would definitely flip?? I mean I know david pissed his pants last time someone mentioned him picking a rock, but I feel like atleast one of mike or steph might not flip, they seem to be a lot less afraid

[Grant]

This is actually really interesting to me.

Who is the most willing to flip on either side? I think it might be Ashley or Julie on the one side, while David on the other. So I think Steph/Mike/David vote Sophie (assuming she does not have the HII/immunity) - though Julie will be the safe vote, I don't think she gets the HII or wins immunity. Would they prefer going to rocks with only a 50/50 shot to return to the game, or do they turn on Sophie? On the other hand, if I'm Ashley/Sophie/Julie, I vote Stephanie - even though she is a large threat to have the HII and/or win immunity - will Mike/David be willing to go to rocks for Stephanie?

And lol are you sure the both of them would definitely flip?? I mean I know david pissed his pants last time someone mentioned him picking a rock, but I feel like atleast one of mike or steph might not flip, they seem to be a lot less afraid

Well, in that scenario, let's say the vote is between Ovambo#1 and Nama#1, it could be any of the three. Nama#2 has immunity, Nama#3 played the HII. That means, Ovambo#2 and Ovambo#3 can flip to vote out Ovambo#1, or they will go to rocks, where the person who goes home is 50% to be Ovambo#2 or 50% to be Ovambo#3. I think both Ovambo#2 and Ovambo#3 INSTANTLY flip to vote out Ovambo#1. 100% chance they stay if they vote Ovambo#1 out, versus 50% if they go to rocks.

Is that confusing?

[Grant]

Also, according to Stephanie, she got the clue in 8 minutes last TC.

If you look now, only Ashley, Mike, David and Stephanie are online - probably trying to get the clue. That's 3 on one side and 1 on the other. If I'm David/Mike/Stephanie, I stay up as long as I need to get it. It's 4am for Ashley, how long is she willing to stay up on data roaming or whatever she was saying - Sophie and Julie already retired for the night. If Ashley's 4am brain is able to come through and get the idol before three able bodies in Steph, Mike and David then she deserved it. It sucks to see that Sophie and Julie left it all on Ashley to find it by herself.

[Cochran]

Who is the most willing to flip on either side? I think it might be Ashley or Julie on the one side, while David on the other. So I think Steph/Mike/David vote Sophie (assuming she does not have the HII/immunity) - though Julie will be the safe vote, I don't think she gets the HII or wins immunity. Would they prefer going to rocks with only a 50/50 shot to return to the game, or do they turn on Sophie? On the other hand, if I'm Ashley/Sophie/Julie, I vote Stephanie - even though she is a large threat to have the HII and/or win immunity - will Mike/David be willing to go to rocks for Stephanie?

Honestly I think that your right about them voting for sophie, even though voting julie would probably encourage them to flip more. But I think that Ashley sophie julie would be better off voting for mike. If they have all three immunities then that means mikes automatically gone and it'd be better to get rid of him because he seems to be the only one rivaling sophie in the immunity challenges. To answer the last question I'm pretty sure David isn't willing to go to rocks for anyone, so old Ovambo side is pretty screwed if it comes down to it.

Well, in that scenario, let's say the vote is between Ovambo#1 and Nama#1, it could be any of the three. Nama#2 has immunity, Nama#3 played the HII. That means, Ovambo#2 and Ovambo#3 can flip to vote out Ovambo#1, or they will go to rocks, where the person who goes home is 50% to be Ovambo#2 or 50% to be Ovambo#3. I think both Ovambo#2 and Ovambo#3 INSTANTLY flip to vote out Ovambo#1. 100% chance they stay if they vote Ovambo#1 out, versus 50% if they go to rocks.

Is that confusing?

And oh yeah that makes sense, why would they go to rocks when they can make sure the person in their alliance is going home and it isn't them.

Ohk so what if someone flips before the first vote is even out. Like lets say Julie flips from the beginning, She'll know what sophie and ashley are going to do with the idol probably, and she could help herself avoid this whole entire thing... and honestly if she can get herself and some other people out of the rock scenario I feel like thats a pretty good move.. and she needs a couple of those to consider her the winner, yknow?

[Cochran]

And well steph found it in 8 minutes, maybe soph or julie found it?? Ashley told me she leaves this site up pretty much at all times so that could be while she's still online.

I don't think those two would get offline unless they both had a good reason because its really important they get the idol

[Grant]

Well, yeah, Julie can flip, but if Ashley/Sophie have the idol between them, they can split the votes (if they really trust Julie) and the person who doesn't goes home. If not, they re-vote and decide which one they want to go home (that is, if neither have immunity or the HII). Will Julie do that? I doubt it.

If you are in a situation where the the other guys had someone win immunity and you know one of them found the idol, it doesn't matter when you flip, first vote, second vote - it doesn't matter. One on your side is going home, you have to make sure it is not you (which you can not be sure of until you see the votes, right?)

[Grant]

And well steph found it in 8 minutes, maybe soph or julie found it?? Ashley told me she leaves this site up pretty much at all times so that could be while she's still online.

I don't think those two would get offline unless they both had a good reason because its really important they get the idol

Hm, maybe. I know Sophie said she has class at 8:30 in the morning. Does Julie care enough to search through clues? Has she before? I don't know. Leaving the site up would be different than being active once per 5 minutes, we wouldn't see her online after 5 minutes of activity I believe. If Sophie/Julie found it, wouldn't they tell Ashley so Ashley can go to bed? I don't think she's be refreshing the page every 5 minutes at 4+am if someone on her team found it. I don't think it is a stretch to believe Sophie and Julie left it for Ashley.

I think when we see Ashley get off, either she fell asleep or she found it. On the other hand, if the three log off around the same time, one of them found it. It'll be interesting to watch, wish I could see them making guesses, ugh.

[Cochran]

Well, yeah, Julie can flip, but if Ashley/Sophie have the idol between them, they can split the votes (if they really trust Julie) and the person who doesn't goes home. If not, they re-vote and decide which one they want to go home (that is, if neither have immunity or the HII). Will Julie do that? I doubt it.

If you are in a situation where the the other guys had someone win immunity and you know one of them found the idol, it doesn't matter when you flip, first vote, second vote - it doesn't matter. One on your side is going home, you have to make sure it is not you (which you can not be sure of until you see the votes, right?)

I don't think they'd split the votes to be honest, even if they thought they had julie, cuz why trust her?? and yeah with Sophie's track record in challenges julies probably better off with them..

And yeah you're right, it's pretty much suicide to not flip at that point, so chances are we'll see someone flip sides.

Honestly I wouldn't know what to do untill I saw who wins immunity...