David's flip (on Kristina)

[Grant]

Here is why I think David's flip on Kristina was a good move for David. It might not have been the best move for Ovambo, but it was a good move for David.

Just to re-visit that vote, it was a 4-4 split with Stephanie/Kristina/David/Mike on one side, and Ashley/Sophie/Whitney/Julie on the other. Mike won immunity and Ashley played the idol. The vote was between Kristina and Sophie. In rocks, the only people who could've pulled rocks were David, Stephanie, Julie or Whitney. 50% chance an Ovambo pulls it, 50% chance a Nama pulls it. Whitney/Julie, how do I put this in the most polite way, are not the biggest challenge threats nor threats to find the idols, so having them in the game is not the worst thing in the world for David. David is in an alliance with Stephanie (and Mike), while Kristina has a working relationship with the Nama girls (pre-Grant boot), so there is reason to argue that she COULD, in his mind, flip to further herself. So, David might've thought, I don't want to go home. I don't want Stephanie to go home. If I'm losing someone from my side, I'd prefer it to be Kristina.

Now, that being said. I don't know how David/Stephanie/Mike feel about the alliance I had with the 3 of them, but if I was in any of their shoes, I was always tighter with those 3 than anyone else in the game, and anyone else in the alliance. David knows if Kristina goes, he, Stephanie and Mike are moving forward. He did have a numbers advantage - yes, it SHOULD have been incredibly stupid. But it worked out for him. Whitney didn't vote, so the following vote split 3-3. It shouldn't have worked out, but it did. I don't know the full of it, obviously, I can only see what people say at TC but I do not have any reason to believe that David FLIPPED on Ovambo, just simply hedged his bets to move himself a step further. There were 2 favorable outcomes, there were 2 unfavorable outcomes. He hedged his bets and took the middle option. He proceeded in the game with Mike and Stephanie and they appear to be rock solid with each other, as I expected. I would have been shocked at that point forward if any of these 3 flipped on each other.

Whitney not voting sort of forgave David of his "flipping". I don't like calling it that because is it really flipping? really? JULIE flipped. David didn't. If they go to rocks at that point and Whitney or Julie go home, sure, it worked out in David, Mike, Stephanie and Kristina's benefit.

I don't think it was such a horrific move. I don't think he is a goat. I don't think Mike is a goat. I don't think there are any goats left in the game. Just my two cents. I still believe Ashley is the one to beat, even though she is on the wrong side of the numbers. I think if the Ovambo-3 don't vote out Ashley and Sophie and go to the final 3 with each other, it would be very very dumb of them.

[Cochran]

I don't think it was such a horrific move. I don't think he is a goat. I don't think Mike is a goat. I don't think there are any goats left in the game. Just my two cents. I still believe Ashley is the one to beat, even though she is on the wrong side of the numbers. I think if the Ovambo-3 don't vote out Ashley and Sophie and go to the final 3 with each other, it would be very very dumb of them.

I agree with david's move not being bad but mostly because it worked out for him. I like the fact that he was looking out for himself and those two and he definitely didn't flip on the alliance, just on kristina

and he definitely isnt a goat, even though he's going to have to do a hell of a job to make it to the end with his name being on top... But thats just my opinion.

And I kinda disagree with you on trying to get to the end with the three ovambo. They definitely need to get out ashley, but it seems to me that Sophie doesn't have a lot of love from most of the jurors. They may not see it that way, And i'm not saying that Sophie can't win because she definitely can, but it's just what i'm seeing around here.

[Grant]

And I kinda disagree with you on trying to get to the end with the three ovambo. They definitely need to get out ashley, but it seems to me that Sophie doesn't have a lot of love from most of the jurors. They may not see it that way, And i'm not saying that Sophie can't win because she definitely can, but it's just what i'm seeing around here.

Well, what you have to consider is, I'm probably easily the most noticeable juror. They could see me laughing at Sophie and think she is not well-liked on the juror but look at the jury. There are currently 7 jurors: Cochran (an ally of Sophie/Ashley?), PB (an ally of Sophie/Ashley?), Ralph (Ovambo), Grant (Ovambo), Kristina (Ovambo), Whitney (an ally of Sophie/Ashley), Julie (an ally of Sophie/Ashley)

If Ashley goes, followed by an Ovambo, then it will be: Ashley (ally of Sophie) and Ovambo (Ovambo)

That's 5 of 9 jurors. That's the majority. They can't take either one. Sophie/Ashley have been preaching blood sisters or whatever voodoo shit they are telling each other, but they got off scotch-free in letting Whitney and Julie go. Whitney and Julie MIGHT continue to be blindly loyal to Sophie/Ashley. Meanwhile, the Ovambo votes could split between the two Ovambo and the non-Ovambo wins.

They can't take either. They have to bring each other.

[Grant]

For what it's worth, I'm in no way saying that is how people WILL vote, but if I am David/Steph/Mike, you HAVE to see that and plan accordingly.

[Cochran]

Well it depends who sophie is sitting with really on my vote. And idk about julie because she was originally with you guys so... But yeah you are pretty much right, I thought more ovambo was here for some reason.

But what if someone goes to the end with both of them.. without flipping. Like sophie and ashley have the idol and immunity next tribal and take it from there. Do you think the nama supporters would possibly be split between sophie and ashley enough for the last ovambo to win??

[Grant]

Yeah, we'll see I guess. Julie is her own person as is everyone else, so I won't even begin to try and predict what each person will think or do in the grand scheme of things. It is just hard to ignore those numbers.

If Sophie + Ashley make it to the end with an Ovambo (which, btw, at least one (non-Ashley) Ovambo is guaranteed to make the finals if it is F3), who knows. Are people just blindly following their voodoo sister Sophie? Or are people going to vote for the best player in the game. It's not as cut an dry any more but I do believe there is a clear order of deservedness. The #1 spot is not as clear anymore as it was a few votes ago, but the bottom is clear to me. I won't speak on that as the person on the bottom of my deservedness ranks is not a goat in any way and could present an argument to get some votes.

Everyone in the game is still a threat. The Ovambo-3 need to realize that not only are the numbers on the jury leaning toward the Nama side, the Ovambo-3 all have played relatively similar games. Think of BvW, Tyson Monica and Gervase went to the end together because they played the game relatively similarly (alliances, etc.), though Tyson much better than the other two. If Ciera or Hayden make it to the jury, it's not an obvious win for Tyson anymore, I think it would have been much tighter than, what, 8-1?

[Ralph]

Honestly with whos in the game I know who I'm voting for.
I can only pray that they stay in!

This season has been a fucking rollercoaster
Reading over those tribals It seemed like after the grant vote shit picked up

[Grant]

[Grant]

Also, I have a question that I'd like everyone's take on:

Is going to rocks a game-winning type move? If someone is willing to go to rocks, are they therefore deserving to win the game? Is going to rocks ALWAYS the best move, when tribes are split?

In my opinion, while it might be gutsy, I don't think it is enough to win the game for someone. It's something to put on your resume, sure, but it is not the end-all be-all. Saying someone was willing to go to rocks means they are brave, sure, and group-oriented, sure. But where is the point in which someone going to rocks is not the smart play?

I think that David might have been the example of a an acceptable time to "flip", maybe not the correct time to flip, but excusable, arguable, reasonable time to flip. I don't know if I like Ashley going to rocks in this past vote, and I certainly don't like Julie going to rocks. When you are blatantly at the bottom of an alliance, when you are the clear third-wheel, I think you should "flip".

In Ashley's defense for going to rocks, she probably thought, if it's not me and Sophie moving forward, I don't want to be in the game anymore. That is what her move says to me, what else can it say? She was unwilling to move forward with Julie which is definitive, clear-cut evidence that Julie was the expendable third-wheel and that is why I think Julie going to rocks was the wrong move (both times). I think it was an acceptable (not an obvious correct) move by Ashley, but the wrong move by Julie.

In Mike's defense for going to rocks, if he loses the rock-draw or if he "flips", they are now at a 4-2 disadvantage. Mike had nothing to lose by going to rocks (well, he would have gone home, but he would have in the following week anyway) and everything to gain. I think Mike made the correct move in going to rocks.

I don't think that saying "I WAS WILLING TO GO TO ROCKS!" is that compelling of an argument. It might seem like a great, balls-to-the-wall move but it is not a great move every single time, as we saw a few different examples. It is a move in the game, like every other move in the game, and could be dumb, acceptable or smart.

Also, just to mention an aside, Ashley said something to the sound of "our alliance failed because one of our unreliable members turned out to expectedly be unreliable at an unfortunate time". There was a reason Julie was not a part of the inner-Ovambo plans and it is not because she wasn't well-liked, it was because she was relatively inactive through a very large portion of the game. I'm sure the same can be said for Whitney. With all due respect to J&W, driving with two flat tires and complaining when one of them blows out does not make me feel sorry for you. The only thing I feel sorry for you for is that you expected to ride to the end with two flat tires. Just my opinion.

[Julie]

I think Mike especially has played a much better game then advertised. Ill explain later :)

Steph/Ash are both great in their own rights.

Mike offered me deals and I passed but he told us that you all were voting Sophie. I'm kinda pulling for him out of Ovambo :)

[Grant]

To be fair, I did too :) I told you all along it was Whitney with some of us voting Sophie as insurance, and then I sent you a last minute message saying something along the lines of "Julie I'm freaking out a little bit, changing my vote to Sophie and I think you should too :)". Little did I know :P

I totally agree that Mike is getting overlooked immensely. I also think a lot of people are misunderstanding David's gameplay and intentions when I think he's actually done very well for himself. When you take a look at things from his POV, his decisions make a lot more sense, especially when you know his intentions before hand in a few of them :) Stephanie is finally getting the credit I've said she's deserved all along (as you'll see in my confessionals, repeated over and over again). Ashley played very well up until the last vote or two. It'll be a tough decision :)

[Julie]

Mike seemed genuine in his F3 offer. He thinks he can beat David but is worried about Steph, but he threw alllllll of you under the bus like hours earlier, that Whitney wasnt the target and you were feeding me.

Whether he was genuine or not he was very open to the point that I initially was talking to him to work him, and he started to convince me ^_^

[Grant]

I'd be interested to hear what he was saying when he was throwing us under the bus. Whitney WAS the target (so the Ovambo side and especially I believed). However you would've been next, had Sophie voted Whitney and not caused a ruckus and had I stayed. Had I stayed because you voted Sophie (or Whitney), I believe Sophie/Ashley would've been the next two to go. I think it would have been an entirely different game if I don't go at that spot, either Sophie going or Kristina going. But obviously that wasn't the case, and that is why it was a good move by you (and the other 3) :)

[Ashley]

In Ashley's defense for going to rocks, she probably thought, if it's not me and Sophie moving forward, I don't want to be in the game anymore. That is what her move says to me, what else can it say? She was unwilling to move forward with Julie which is definitive, clear-cut evidence that Julie was the expendable third-wheel and that is why I think Julie going to rocks was the wrong move (both times). I think it was an acceptable (not an obvious correct) move by Ashley, but the wrong move by Julie.

omg lol.

I tried to get Julie to flip on Sophie. I blasted David for not going to rocks, so I wasn't about to turn a juror against me if I got to F3 and flip on Sophie

It was purely strategic. Love Sophie to the death, but I was playing to win.

[Mike]

I think that David might have been the example of a an acceptable time to "flip", maybe not the correct time to flip, but excusable, arguable, reasonable time to flip. I don't know if I like Ashley going to rocks in this past vote, and I certainly don't like Julie going to rocks. When you are blatantly at the bottom of an alliance, when you are the clear third-wheel, I think you should "flip".

In Ashley's defense for going to rocks, she probably thought, if it's not me and Sophie moving forward, I don't want to be in the game anymore. That is what her move says to me, what else can it say? She was unwilling to move forward with Julie which is definitive, clear-cut evidence that Julie was the expendable third-wheel and that is why I think Julie going to rocks was the wrong move (both times). I think it was an acceptable (not an obvious correct) move by Ashley, but the wrong move by Julie.

In Mike's defense for going to rocks, if he loses the rock-draw or if he "flips", they are now at a 4-2 disadvantage. Mike had nothing to lose by going to rocks (well, he would have gone home, but he would have in the following week anyway) and everything to gain. I think Mike made the correct move in going to rocks.

I agree with your reasoning for Julie going to rocks and me going to rocks - I think Julie should have flipped and I believe I said in my confessionals that her going to F5 with Ashley was almost as good as going with Sophie and certainly not risking 1/2 chance of rocks over (she also could have gone to F3 with David and I which I offered) whereas Ashley knew she NEEDED to go with Sophie to F5 in order to try and obtain double immunity which she had an immensely lower chance of doing with Julie.

I went for rocks for the same reason you mentioned, if I didn't get eliminated at that vote then it would be the next vote, or the vote after that. I don't necessarily agree with David's flip because the only Nama person we thought *might* flip was Julie and she didn't;

[Mike]

I think Mike especially has played a much better game then advertised. Ill explain later :)

Steph/Ash are both great in their own rights.

Mike offered me deals and I passed but he told us that you all were voting Sophie. I'm kinda pulling for him out of Ovambo :)

Thanks <3