by Grant » Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:38:28 am
I will re-visit how I would have planned the TCs to go a few days ago in a previous confessional.
Whitney goes while Sophie plays an idol (8-3) (11) Wrong - PB went home here
Sophie goes (8-2) - or if she doesn't play the idol in the previous TC, split PB/Sophie (4-4-2) (10) Wrong - Ralph went here
I'd like to see Ralph go here, he is too much of a wildcard for me (5-3-1? 6-3? 5-4?) (9)
It would be best for me to see PB go here (7-1? 6-2? 5-3?) (8)
It would make sense for Kristina to go here (5-2? 4-3?) (7)
Ashley should probably go here (5-1?) (6)
Stephanie should probably go here (4-1? 3-2?) (5)
Mike should probably go here (3-1?) (4)
Final 3: me, David, Julie. Julie
In my would've-liked-scenario here, my #8 and #9 went #10 and #11. Some new developments have happened since then. PB and Ralph both went home, obviously. Kristina created a new alliance of myself, Kristina, Stephanie, Ashley and Sophie, and then she created a subset of that alliance in myself, Kristina, Stephanie and Ashley, and then created a subset of that subset-alliance of myself, Kristina and Ashley. Do I expect there to be a different alliance of Kristina, Stephanie, Ashley and Sophie? Absolutely. Do I expect there to be an alliance of Kristina, Stephanie and Ashley? Absolutely. As I said earlier in the game, I wanted to be in a majority alliance and then have a subset where I am at the core. I had that with the Ovambo7 with the subset Core4. Here is just a messy core and I don't know how legit any of them are. I am suspicious of Ashley still and even moreso of Kristina. They want to vote Whitney out at the next vote followed by Julie. Why do they want them out? I don't know, but I also don't care. I am not actively working with either of them. I asked Julie to have my back if they tried to vote me out because I always keep her on the loop. On the other hand, I am hearing she is was trying to "make a move" to get in the game. I'll be damned if I go home because someone who was asleep all game and just woke up decided to knock me out of the game. Now, the real question is, how with me is Stephanie? At this spot in the game, there are 9 votes. I need to make sure that 5 are on my side. I think that the core4 will vote together - I think. And by vote together, I mean not vote with the others to vote me out. That would include me, David, Mike and Stephanie. I would just need one more person to not be willing to vote me out. Kristina says she loves my face and all kinds of other weird shit. Do I think she means it? No. Ashley has a final 2 thing with me, is she willing to vote me out if she has to? I'd bet my ass on it. Will Sophie save me? LOL! Will Whitney? Doubt it. How about Julie? I don't know. Now, I only need ONE of those FIVE to not be willing to vote me out. Possible? Yeah, but probably not likely. IF Whitney is the next target (wtf at getting Whitney out? I'm 90% sure I am the target if I don't win, whether they tell me Whitney not), then we're left with 8 and I still have my core4. If Ashley is being legit to me, then I should have 5 votes in an 8-person game.
Just to summarize, I guess:
11. PB
10. Ralph
9. Whitney
8. Julie
They are now out of the game (looking ahead a little, knowing right well I am probably the target here at this upcoming vote, and probably again at the following one). Let's say this actually happens (and that I make it through).
The game is left with 7 people:
myself
Stephanie
Mike
David
Ashley
Kristina
Sophie
I have an alliance with ALL OF THEM! Are they comparing notes about me? I don't think they are or else I don't think I'd be here. Is it risky? Hell yeah it is, but as the wise Jonathan Penner did not do, you always have to say yes to alliances. As Boston Rob used to say, in conjunction with that, "if you're not with me, you're against me", so I have to appear that I am with everyone who offers me an alliance, otherwise I am against them :)
There is the:
David/Mike/Steph/Grant alliance
Kristina/Ashley/Steph/Grant/Sophie alliance
An alliance of 4 and an alliance of 5, each sharing 2 members, both including me!
Sophie's gotta go, obviously, she's friends with every jury member so far. That knocks us down to 6 people remaining.
I think at this point, if I actually make it, I need to get Kristina out. I legitimately need Kristina out because she has been working the other side and more legit (AND LESS AMBIGUOUS, RIGHT, SOPHIE?) with them. That brings us to the final 5.
At this point, I win immunity or go home - that simple. I need to win the final 2. I'm sure if they are smart, they will give themselves two chances to get me out, in the event I get immunity at F5, they can get me at F4. If I make the finals, I win. I have to win. Who else would get votes over me? I've won three damn immunities and been a deciding force in who has gone home at every tribal council I've attended. I got swapped to the other side, then came back to an immediate TC where I didn't even get voted out.
Let's say for the sake of argument that I win both immunities (not getting cocky but I have won 100% of the immunity challenges so far...).
Left is Ashley, Stephanie, Grant, Mike and David, the final 5.
Ashley's gotta go, am I joking? How did she make it this far?
Final 4 = the core 4. :)
Who is the biggest threat in the core-4? Me, by a long mile, I think. Who comes after me? Are Mike and David even doing anything? Could 3 guys get voted out one by one by one to begin the post-merge game, and then the remaining 3 make it to the end? I guess time will tell!
To recap:
12. Cochran
11. PB
10. Ralph
9. Whitney
8. Julie
7. Sophie
6. Kristina
5. Ashley
4. Stephanie
3. Mike
2. David
1. Grant
Let's see how accurate I am at the end of the week, if I am even still in the game :)
