Episode 07

[Brenda]

Gurrrrrrrrrrrrl! Boy!

Catch me up! (No really, I just missed a full week). Are we looking into a Pagonging here? And if so, is that even good for you? Are you top of the pile of Ovambo? Do you trust the rest Ovambo to feel the same?

Who in Nama would you most like to see stick around?

What thought on idols and that kind of thing?

[Grant]

I thought I answered all those questions last time :(

I don't think we're looking at a Pagonging but maybe we are. I would not be surprised if I get kicked out sometime soon. If that does happen, yeah, I do think that is good for me. I think I can navigate pretty well within the Ovambo people and the Nama people are so shady. I think there are a few people who trust me borderline unconditionally on Ovambo, so I think as long as I can keep them in the game and shrink the numbers, I should be pretty good. That's a little bit of an overstatement but I think they would not vote for me (yet).

That being said, I think I am at high-risk for being blindsided. I think I have an arm in with every person on Ovambo. I don't think I am at the top but I think I am the most connected. I'm trying very hard to make it seem like I'm not at the top but rather the middle / bottom, so people think they can get rid of me later and that there are bigger fish to fry. With the Nama people still in the game, I'm hearing a lot about how they don't like me and how they want me gone asap. Papa Bear messaged me telling me he knows I'm going to the finals and he'd vote for me. I tried to play it down like I didn't think I'd get there because honestly it's just one step at a time.

I don't want any Nama to stick around. They complicate things for me and I want it to be as simple as possible with as few variables as possible.

This vote, man, this vote. I was sure they were voting Julie based on what Ashley told me and I knew the vote was Cochran like yesterday. David told me that Sophie called Cochran's name to me and that spooked me and I thought Julie was a goner - and she didn't even get a single vote against her! Shows how much I know...

EVERYONE is suspicious of Ashley but I'm more suspicious of Ralph. Is Ashley playing me? Maybe. She shouldn't be though because she needs me more than I need her. Her biggest use to me was this vote and now that it's over, she's expendable. Sorry, darling. I'm not going to compromise my game to keep her safe.

I think the core-4 alliance are still my biggest allies and my tightest alliance and the alliance I am most intending to stick with. I think Julie likes me and is a decent 5th provided she hangs around and doesn't blow my cover. Kristina is smart. She's almost too smart. I think we keep her around but I need to get rid of her before she gets rid of me.

Ralph, I'm pretty sure he flipped. I'm also pretty sure he has the idol. What can we do about that? We can pretend we have no idea and let him think everything is all hunky-dory (sp?) and then blindside him so he doesn't even think to play the idol, for himself or anyone else. I also think Sophie has their idol.

I really believe I am the biggest threat left in the game. There are 10 others who need to believe that is not the case.

Ashley, man, ugh. I don't know what to think of her, I'm super suspicious of her as well but I can't let her know that. She's just feeding me too much good info. Maybe it's false info, but, man....

[Jeff Probst]

So Grant, here's my question for you.

You said you were the biggest threat in the game. IF you get rid of Nama that leaves you as the obvious threat, are you confident that your alliance will stay loyal to you past that point? Are you concerned about getting cut before the finals due to being such a large threat? Have you entertained taking other large threats to the end with you to avoid that?

[Jeff Probst]

Another question to follow that up because after reading it again it stuck out to me. You seem to be ignoring the Nama members as a factor that you want to get rid of. Is that an oversight that someone else could take advantage of if you don't?

[Grant]

Grrrrrr... I typed up a decent response on my phone and accidentally lost it all before I could submit it, but I did answer your followup question before you asked it.

Nama members are threats to me because they are a solid voting bloc. They could say, hey, we have 4 solid votes against Grant and all they need is 2 people to flip to get the majority. I think Ralph flipped before and I think Kristina could easily be swayed against me, considering I am a big threat to her game. That would also include Ashley flipping on me. That's very worrying to me and in order for me to make it through the next few TCs, the Nama members need to go. They present too viable of a route of getting rid of me.

I do trust the Ovambo players more than the Nama players but moreso than that, I know the Ovambo players more than the Nama players. I have a better grasp of what I will need to do to change their minds, while the Nama people have been lying to me a lot, I'm actually not sure if anything any of them has told me has been true. The Nama players are threats to me because they are numbers that are not my numbers. I don't remember what all I wrote in my last message but it was really good :(

I think what I need to do is make sure the people who are most likely to vote me out are the ones who go home and that the people who are left are the people least likely to vote me out. I think in order, it would be: Sophie, Whitney, Ralph, Papa Bear, Kristina, Ashley, Julie, Stephanie, David, Mike. Effectively, that would be the pecking order I need people to go home. Am I overlooking them? No, I don't think so. I think in making sure they go home, I am making them the fore-front of my focus so that they are unable to do anything fishy. Am I going about it wrong? Maybe.

I think I am one of the top challenge threats. I think I am the biggest social threat (don't laugh at me if I'm wrong, please :( ). I am trying to downplay my strategic threat level. The Brian Heidek handbook says that you should always make others feel like they are making the decision. I have been and will continue to try and make it seem like I am not the one making the decision, and that I am willing to follow when in reality I am strongly hinting at some ideas and rejecting others.

Someone else could certainly take advantage of them, as I mentioned in my first paragraph. That is what I am most worried about. I am not sure how I can use them without being in an alliance with them. Sophie wants me gone. Papa Bear wants me in a final 4 alliance (the same thing he offers everyone). Whitney is a vote in PB&S's back pocket.

Ashley and Kristina want to split the votes. Why do they want to split the votes? Is it because they are that confident that it will be 4-4-3 or because splitting the votes makes it easier to turn on.

If we stay together, it would be 8-3. If all three flip, it will be 5-6, so why do they want to split the votes? Do they not have Ralph? I'm pretty sure Kristina (THINKS) she has Ralph in her back pocket, so why the need to split the votes if they think they have the votes? Why lie to me if they think they have me, too?

I think the tribe is split like this and not necessarily split three ways but there are definitely three different segments:
Kristina, Ralph, Ashley, me
Stephanie, David, Mike, me
Papa Bear, Sophie, Whitney, Ashley

Julie's not involved in any of this, and I think she would follow what I tell her to do like a Matteo von Ertfelda following a Rob C., as long as I give her info on what to do, I think she will follow it. David was a little shady last night but he told me he has my back 1000%. I believe Mike also has my back. I send Stephanie a lot of messages and she's not very good at responding to them, could it be because she is reporting everything I say back to someone else? I think she is tight with Kristina so that's something to watch out for.

I absolutely want to keep the bigger threats with me as long as possible. My biggest threats are Stephanie and Kristina. I think Kristina has to go earlier rather than later because she will come for me, so I have to strike first. I think Stephanie is less coming after me but a bigger threat, possibly a bigger threat than me - at least that is what I will tell the others.

I don't really understand the Final 3 group of me, Ralph and Kristina. I don't know how or why I was included in that, I didn't think I was that tight with Kristina and I definitely didn't feel that tight with Ralph. Ralph is a complete wildcard to me, I am pretty sure that he voted Mike. I don't feel like I have any control in this group. They want to split the vote 4-4-3 while I am the target for the Nama side, so I guess I need to win immunity again. I will talk to PB again and tell him that he should consider voting for someone who he thinks he can get someone to flip to voting for, someone not named Grant. Why do they want to split the votes? I don't get it. If Sophie has the idol, we can easily just vote out Whitney and hope she plays it, then get Sophie out the next TC when she has no idol.

If I had to plan out the next few TCs which I don't like doing because I need to make it through each one to get through to the next:
Whitney goes while Sophie plays an idol (8-3) (11)
Sophie goes (8-2) - or if she doesn't play the idol in the previous TC, split PB/Sophie (4-4-2) (10)
I'd like to see Ralph go here, he is too much of a wildcard for me (5-3-1? 6-3? 5-4?) (9)
It would be best for me to see PB go here (7-1? 6-2? 5-3?) (8)
It would make sense for Kristina to go here (5-2? 4-3?) (7)
Ashley should probably go here (5-1?) (6)
Stephanie should probably go here (4-1? 3-2?) (5)
Mike should probably go here (3-1?) (4)
Final 3: me, David, Julie. Julie is a goat, no one will vote for her. I'd be surprised if she made it because she will be considered the "easy vote" at any point. Any vote for David would probably be a vote against me. I ought to win if this is how it goes. It won't go like this, but this is my pipe dream.

[Jeff Probst]

Are you concerned that someone will jump on the chance to work with Nama before you get the point of getting rid of them alll?

[Grant]

I'm very concerned that someone will jump on the chance with work with them to get me out. Are you trying to tell me something by asking me this twice? :X

[Grant]

Also for what it's worth, I don't think it is in my best interest to get them all out in order. I intend to use them to help me get others out. Can other people do that to me? They sure can and I expect them to try. I'll see what I can do, I guess.

[Grant]

Figured I'd give a quick update on how I expect the vote to go, as of right now:

In regard to myself, Steph, David and Mike:
We think it will be a 4-4-3 vote and the idols will be forced. It's a plan that could get rid of both idols at once and pretty much guarantees a dangerous player goes home. David is going to vote with Nama and vote Ralph out. I suspect Ashley is going to vote with us and vote PB.
IF Sophie plays the idol and not Ralph, Ralph goes home in a 4-3-0 vote.
IF Ralph plays the idol and not Sophie, Sophie goes home in a 4-3-0 vote.
IF Ralph and Sophie play the idol, PB goes home in a 3-0-0 vote.
IF neither Ralph and Sophie play the idol, Sophie goes home in a re-vote 7-4 vote, after a 4-4 vote.
I believe this is the very summarized version of the plan, there are other tweaks and other perks included in my message to the core-4 but I am too lazy to post them. I will copy paste it later on for easy access to it.
This group thinks the vote will go:
Voting for Sophie: Steph, Kristina, Ralph, Mike (4)
Voting for PB: Grant, Ashley, Julie (3)
Voting for Ralph: PB, Sophie, Whitney, David (4)

According to Julie, Kristina and Ralph:
They think it will be a 5-3-3 vote, depending on Ashley. They think the vote is a precaution to prevent Ashley from flipping.
They think:
IF Sophie plays the idol, PB will go home after a re-vote after an original 3-3-0 vote.
IF Sophie doesn't play the idol, Sophie will go home in a 5-3-3 vote.
IF they play the idol on PB, Sophie will go home in a 5-3-0 vote.
It almost seems too easy... It's not going to go this well... It can't go this well, can it? It never does...
This group thinks the vote will go:
Voting for Sophie: Steph, Kristina, Ralph, Mike, David (5)
Voting for PB: Grant, Ashley, Julie (3)
Voting for Ralph: PB, Sophie, Whitney (3)

According to Ashley:
She thinks it will be a 5-3-3 vote as well. She told me her vote-off message to PB will be "Sorry PB. Time to go." so we will see if that happens.
I don't know if she expects any idols to be played, she probably does.
She PROBABLY thinks the vote will go:
Voting for Sophie: Steph, Kristina, Ralph, Mike, David (5)
Voting for PB: Grant, Ashley, Julie (3)
Voting for Ralph: PB, Sophie, Whitney (3)

According to PB, Sophie and Whitney:
They don't know how we're voting, I guess. They think Ashley, David and Mike are flipping to their side, but only David actually is going to. They think they have 6 and that is all they would need, theoretically.
I'm trying to have them give the indication that the vote will be PB so they use the idol to keep PB in the game and send Sophie home. It would be better for me (because of David) if PB is in the game and if Sophie goes.
I told David to tell them he will tell them his vote-message so they will know that Ralph vote was his.
This group thinks the vote will go:
Voting for PB: Steph, Kristina, Ralph, Grant, Julie (5)
Voting for Ralph: PB, Sophie, Whitney, David, Mike, Ashley (6)

In reality, I think the vote will go:
Voting for Sophie: Steph, Kristina, Ralph, Mike (4)
Voting for PB: Grant, Ashley, Julie (3)
Voting for Ralph: PB, Sophie, Whitney, David (4)

[Grant]

Quick access to the plans:
To David, Mike, Steph:
Here's what I'm thinking and I don't know how much David has filled you guys in on but I think this is what we should do:

David spoke to me yesterday asking me what the pros/cons would be of "working with" Nama, but not "working with" Nama - I hope that makes sense. In other words, he's feigning interest to work with them and will actually vote with them to get them to trust him (and, hence, us - though they may not know that yet) in future votes and vote with him (us). If they help us with a vote or two, we are well on our way to getting this 4 to the final 4.

I had the idea to say we are going to split the vote 5-3-3 and here is why:

If David is one of the 5 and he votes with them as a sign of good faith or whatever, it becomes 4-4-3.

I assume they are voting Ralph and I say we direct the majority of our votes at Sophie.

In this case, whoever of Ralph / Sophie does not play the idol goes home. If Ralph plays the idol, Sophie goes home (4-3-0). If Sophie plays the idol, Ralph goes home (4-3-0). If neither play the idol, we re-vote and decide who we want to go home (4-4-3). If both play the idol, PB goes home (3-0-0).

This plan guarantees at least 1 idol will be used (or wasted) and has a strong chance to induce both idols. The only slight problem is if Ralph did give his idol to Kristina, in which case this guarantees nothing.

We can tell Ralph they're voting for him and to play his idol just in case something goes wrong. We can do that, it gets rid of his idol and it's true that they are voting for him. It is true that playing his idol will make it completely safe for all of us. It is also true that Ralph will no longer have the idol. If you guys think we should do that, let's do that.

There is also the added benefit that we can tell Ashley to vote PB and that we are all voting PB so if she flips to them, they play the idol on PB and it hurts us absolutely none. If Ashley DOES flip, she is voting Ralph and she walks right into an idol, or if no idols are played, a 5-5 vote and we re-vote and send Sophie (and her idol) home.

So, to summarize, David needs to be expected to vote Ralph.
What we say we expect:
David, Steph, Kristina, Ralph, Mike voting Sophie (5)
Grant, Ashley, Julie voting PB (3)
PB, Sophie, Whitney voting Ralph (3)

What we actually expect:
Steph, Kristina, Ralph, Mike voting Sophie (4)
Grant, Ashley, Julie voting PB (3)
David, PB, Sophie, Whitney voting Ralph (4)

If Ralph/Kristina try to do something tricky, Ralph goes home. If we need to re-vote between either option, I think we keep Ralph but it's up to you guys I suppose.

Ralph suggested to me that we vote 5-3-3 in a PM to me, so I will suggest it to the group with the caveat that we tell Ashley (or anyone else we don't trust which is no one because it's in the group) that we are all voting PB and to put her vote on PB and see if she flips or not and see if they play the idol on PB instead of Sophie.

To Ovambo (ie, Kristina, Ralph, Julie):
I spoke to Ralph and he suggested a 5-3-3 and that made a lot more sense and here is why - if we think Ashley is not going to flip, the #1 concern we have is that she spills the beans on who they should play the idol on and then vote with them. If we tell her to vote PB, perhaps she tells them and they play the idol on PB, while we put 5 votes on Sophie. That's ideal. If she doesn't flip and votes with us, then she will just be voting with our safety net. If she (or someone else) flips, it will be 4-4-3 (like I was originally worried about, but in our favor this time) so we can re-vote with 3 extra votes, or it will be 5-4-2 and Sophie still goes. If Sophie uses the idol, it's 3-3 between PB and their target, so we re-vote and send PB home. Sounds like a good plan, right? (assuming ties are broken with re-votes)

I honestly think we need to get ourselves prepared ahead of time because I'm sure the Nama guys will be being all slimey like usual, so I think it's crucial that we get a plan agreed upon.

I think we have Ashley vote PB and we have Julie vote PB (I'm always nervous you're not going to vote in time, Julie! ). I don't think it matters who the third voting PB is. I'll even do it, I don't mind.

So, what do you guys think? Is that a tentative plan? Let's say..
Ralph, Mike, Kristina, David and Stephanie voting Sophie (5)
Grant, Ashley, Julie voting PB (3)
PB, Sophie, Whitney voting [insert Nama target] (3)

Ideally we make sure PB/Sophie don't win immunity but if they do, we can change the immunity winner to Whitney.


I REALLY REALLY WISH I KNEW HOW TIES WERE BROKEN

[Grant]

THIS CHALLENGE IS GOING TO BLOW UP MY SPOT.

UGH.

[Grant]

I didn't want immunity here, I just wanted Sophie to not get it ;___;

Dumb 2 people winning immunity =(

Damn Julie getting easy ones wrong.