Episode 07

[Brenda]

Gurrrrrrrrrrrrl!

Catch me up! (No really, I just missed a full week). Are we looking into a Pagonging here? And if so, is that even good for you? Are you top of the pile of Ovambo? Do you trust the rest Ovambo to feel the same?

Who in Nama would you most like to see stick around?

What thought on idols and that kind of thing?

[David]

Hey Brenda!

Unfortunately, I think a pagonging is on the horizon, which is really boring. Honestly, I do think it's best for me. If all of Nama is gone, I'm going to have an alliance of four with Steph, Grant, and Mike. We didn't have a vote with the Ovambo six though, so that could ruffle some feathers. I want to get to the end with Mike though. The Nama seem to dislike him, so I could potentially win against him. I'll have to see where everyone's head is at tonight and tomorrow and just adjust my gameplay from there.

Also, I was really upset that my plan didn't work. It was kind of last minute, but I still think I benefited from it. I know that Grant does not trust Ralph or Kristina and I believe I made him lie to Sophie. His bond with Nama just weakened and my bond with him just strengthened. He knows now that I trust him enough to go to him before I make any huge decisions. I really think my little lie helped me, even if the plan as a whole didn't work out.

In Nama, I would like Papa Bear to stick around. The Ovambo people don't like him and he has very little tact. He is like a bull in a china shop. Sophie on the other hand, is very calculated in her moves and is soooooo smart. She just has a way of steering conversations in a way to get what she wants. She is a huge threat who I think needs to leave soon.

Idols are still in play. I'm kind of second guessing myself now that no one played theirs. I still think Ralph has ours, but Whitney may not have theirs. It is definitely something I need to look more into.

I'm sort of beginning to realize that I need to stop focusing on who I like, and focus more on what is best for me. And I truly believe that sticking with Ovambo is what is best for me right now. Of course, a lot can happen between now and the next vote, but until that, I'm sticking with Ovambo.

[Brenda]

Okay damn. This is a good concise confessional that's actually filled me in. (fuck those other guys) Good work

So of this final 11, you would like you/Steph/Grant/Mike at the end. Or at least up there. Is that just out of convenience or is that because they are beatable people to go with?

And I can't help but notice the absence of all of Julie/Kristina/Ralph from those numbers. Yet obvs with 11, those plus Nama = more than your foursome. What do they think is happening? What makes you think those three plus Nama are just gonna let your four march to the end here unopposed?

[David]

Going the distance with Steph, Grant, and Mike is mostly out of convenience to be quite honest. But are they beatable? Hell yes. Nama hate Grant and Mike, and, in my eyes, all of us have an equal shot at getting jury votes from Ovambo. Going to the end with 2 people like that almost certainly spells out a win for me. Steph would be the only real threat remaining at that point, but I would at least stand a chance with her. At least, I like to think so. I just think my best shot lies in getting far with that alliance.

Julie, Kristina, and Ralph still definitely pose a threat, though, Especially with this many numbers left, they could detect our four person alliance and overthrow us. I'm not sure what they think, but I feel like they are just as loyal to Ovambo as we are. We are confused about one vote, but what's one vote when you have a 7-4 numbers advantage? Those three are basically in the position that I was afraid I was in. I didn't want to stick with Ovambo only to end up on the jury. That is why it is so important for us to not let our four person alliance out. Once they catch on, they will definitely try to get us out, which will completely ruin my game.

[Jeff Probst]

So David, you're a fan of the show I'm assuming. It's a bit ironic that both seasons that the players reps come from were apart of pagongings with original tribes against eachother. The common thread in those two seasons were these big alliances in which players remained loyal because they were duped into thinking they were in the finals and had a shot at winning, when watching along all season we were screaming at the TV saying, MAKE A MOVE.

So I have to ask, if you followed a similar path, are you the one at the top of the alliance, or are you the one that everyone's screaming at to make a move?

[David]

Being such a big fan of the show, I know that this game is all about trust. At least, a big part of it is. I trust that Steph, Grant, and Mike are being honest with me, but I still recognize that they could be lying. Never am I ever going to feel comfortable in my position, but at some point, I have to just go with it believing that the people I talked to are telling the truth. It's so tricky because on TV, you see the perspectives of everyone, so the right move is often right in front of your face, but it's different when you only have your own experiences to go off of. I can't be 100% sure what Grant, Mike, or Steph are thinking, I can only decide things based off of my thoughts. It may seem simple if you have everyone's thoughts, but with only your own thoughts, it gets 8000000% harder.

I'm sort of thinking of getting rid of Kristina, Ralph, and Julie sooner rather than later. I just think the possibility of them flipping is very plausible and that scares me. If we were to vote out Whitney, then align with the two remaining Nama members to vote out Ralph, I believe both idols would be gone and my four person alliance would hold all of the power. I have to talk to my alliance mates, but it definitely seems like a good idea in theory.

[David]

Okay, so my mind has been really working these past couple days, and I feel like I have the perfect plan to guarantee myself a spot near the endgame. The story goes a little something like this:

Papa Bear and Sophie approach me with a plan to blindside Ralph. They say that he has the idol 100% and that he is a huge threat if he gets any further. I agree, he will become a big threat, but am still hesitant to vote out an original Ovambo member this soon, but I see an oppurtunity. In order to not raise suspicion, I agree to their offer, and tell them that I will blindside Ralph. They also tell me that Mike is in on the plan as well. Of course, Mike is in my four person alliance, so I quickly go to him to talk about this plan. As you know, I've suspected Ralph as the mole since the very beginning, literally, so I'm not opposed to getting him out, but, again, it's too soon for that. I express my concerns to Mike, and he seems to be on the same page with me; however, he does express interest in getting out Ralph soon as well. Plus, Papa Bear and Sophie are coming to me and him with all this information about other members of our tribe and I definitely don't want that to end, but if we both betray them, they will just completely shut down any kind of communication with us.

My solution to this little conundrum is for either Mike or myself to intentionally vote with the minority. This would still cause one of the Nama members to go home, while still keeping one of us in the loop with them. As a result, we have information coming from both sides of the tribe, and it just gives my four person alliance so much leverage in this game. It would allow us to make any move in this game we wanted to. Just because we are in an alliance, doesn't mean we have to vote with each other every single time. I know that sounds weird, but it makes so much sense. Right? I just hope that made sense because it sounds kind of confusing reading it back. If it were to work, I just don't see how it could backfire.

[Jeff Probst]

The only question you have to ask yourself, David, is if the alliance of four is YOUR best move.

[David]

I'm just so excited about this vote since it was kind of my idea, but Grant made a pretty smart revision to it!

Ovambo will split the votes. Supposedly, five votes will go to Sophie, three will go to Papa Bear, and three will go to Ralph. In actuality, I will flip my vote to ralph, so four votes will go to him, and four will go to Sophie. This plan guarantees that an idol will leave the game and that a Nama will go home, while still keeping one of us in with them. Of course, there is a chance it could backfire. Someone could not vote and screw everything up, but if it works how it's supposed to, it's basically smooth sailing.

Honestly, I think the alliance of four is my best move. I really feel like I could stand a chance winning against any combination of them in the final three. Whatever happens tonight, I can promise it will be exciting!

[Jeff Probst]

So here's my question to, you keep referring to this as a great move, when in actually nothing is really happening if a Nama is going home anyway. If i'm a Nama and I'm on the jury, you just unnecessarily pissed them off by lying to them about an alliance and blindsiding them when you said you would vote with them for absolutely no reason. Why would you get their vote over someone who didn't lie?

I'm just trying to see the logic here because it seemed like you were going to actually make a move and take out an Ovambo, and now you think it's a better move not to, which is just doing what you were going to do originally, so it's not really making a move at all.

[David]

I guess I'm just sort of looking at it as a sort of gateway drug for myself. It would allow me to make bigger moves in the future to get to the end. Like I said, idols=bad, so I need them to go. Voting this way pretty much ensures that one of them goes, maybe even both. It also keeps everyone in my core alliance safe. So, yes, we aren't getting rid of an Ovambo member, but it just keeps everyone that I need in the game safe for now. I know it's confusing, and it could in actuality, be pointless, but here is the main reason why it is so attractive to me. I've been worried that the Nama members could align with Kristina and Ralph and just take out my alliance. This way, I can monitor the Nama and make sure that doesn't happen.

Idol(s) is gone, and so is my fear of Kristina and Ralph flipping on me.